PC & MLB

2010 Orioles

mlblogscallmeben721 — Sun, 24 Jan 2010 19:24:37 +0000

Mark this down, people, you heard it here first.

The 2010 Baltimore Orioles will contend for the AL Wild Card this year.

Why?

1B Garrett Atkins/Luke Scott
2B Brian Roberts
SS Miguel Tejada/Cesar Izturis
3B Ty Wigginton/ Miguel Tejada
LF Nolan Reimold/Felix Pie/Luke Scott
CF Adam Jones
RF Nick Markakis
DH Luke Scott/Nolan Reimold/Ty Wigginton

SP Kevin Millwood
SP Jeremy Guthrie
SP Brad Bergesen
SP Brian Matusz
SP Chris Tillman
SP David Hernandez

RP Mike Gonzalez
RP Jim Johnson
RP Dennis Sarfate

Really, the only question this team has is bullpen depth, with no major left handed relievers.

This team is as promising as I have EVER seen the Baltimore Orioles since I started watching baseball in 1995. Of course, that’s not saying much, but I think this team is fully capable of 85-90 wins. The real tests are whether Millwood regains his early 2009 form, Guthrie has better luck and run support, and whether Garrett Atkins regains his pre-2009 form. It’s likely Atkins doesn’t put up his old Coors Field power numbers, but the guy knows how to hit and drive in runs. This is one heck of a team.

An Idiot in the Hall of Fame

mlblogscallmeben721 — Sun, 10 Jan 2010 05:14:07 +0000

Holy moly. I was just browsing Johnny Damon’s career stats and if he stays healthy for four more full seasons, he’s a Hall of Famer.

3,000 hits, 400 steals, maybe 250 home runs, 1,000 RBI….. I just can’t believe the stats he’s accumulated quite under the radar. When I think of Hall of Fame caliber players, Johnny Damon does not come to mind. Granted, he’s not very good defensively and he’s got a noodle for an arm, but offensively he’ll have the numbers if he just stays healthy a couple more seasons.

I am astounded.

VALUE: New York Yankees

mlblogscallmeben721 — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 16:19:53 +0000

I will be starting a series of club evaluations based on the team’s players’ performance value (PV) in millions since 2002 (values derived from the excellent fangraphs.com) as opposed by their salary (SV) in millions. The players included will be starting position players and DH’s, starting pitchers, and closers. If a salary was not included for the player’s first year, as sometimes happens on fangraphs, I inserted the average of the next two year’s pay, or most of the time a 0.3. If a salary was not included for 2009, I searched the player’s ESPN.com page to find out the salary. Once I recorded both the total performance value and total salary, I divided them, the total salary being the numerator and the performance value the denominator. Finally, I subtracted that quotient from 1, which gave me the percentage out of 100 that a player outperformed (OVRP) his salary for his career.

Starting this series will be, who else, the New York Yankees.

PLAYER OVRP PV / SV

Joba Chamberlain .9526 25.3
- 1.2

Curtis Granderson .9323 79.8
- 5.7

Melky Cabrera .8324 17.3 – 2.9

Robinson Cano .8172 55.8
- 10.2

Nick Swisher .8099 54.7
- 10.4

Nick Johnson .7136 61.8
- 17.7

CC Sabathia .6648 154.8
- 51.89

Mark Teixeira .5216 116.0 – 55.5

A.J. Burnett .4553 99.5
- 54.2

Jorge Posada .3286 126.9
- 85.2

Andy Pettite .2485 118.3 – 88.9

Alex Rodriguez .0460 206.9
- 197.4

Derek Jeter - .0563 145.6
- 153.8

Mariano Rivera - .3144 70.3 – 92.4

With the Yankees, we find some interesting results. We all know that Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettite, and Jorge Posada have been some of the best players at their respective positions over the past decade. The difference, however, between those players and players like A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia, and Mark Teixeira is that the latter group had been playing for other teams for the previous years before 2009, which is the key. They had not been playing for a team like the Yankees, who will spend absurd amounts of money to nab the best players on the market, or from within their own organization. This is, of course, disregarding the fact that they are also younger players who were not yet established enough to hit the free agent market and earn the big bucks.

The most surprising to me, however, are Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera being in negative figures. Derek Jeter, no matter his contract, is an outstanding player. His glove has been shaky at times, but there is no denying his true value on the field 150 times a year. Mariano Rivera is the same, yet I think his negative numbers are due to some oversight on the part of fangraphs.com, as I suspect they don’t have different criteria for assessing closers as opposed to starting pitchers.

Note also newcomers Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson’s respective values as opposed to their contracts. A few years down the line, when the Yankees will hopefully re-up him with a new deal, his overperformance percentage (OVRP) will come down a ways. I also thought Nick Swisher’s value was interesting, seeing that he has been in the league for six or seven years now, but still has consistently outperformed his contract value significantly.

UP NEXT: The Boston Red Sox

Free Agent Predictions

mlblogscallmeben721 — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 14:30:08 +0000

Here’s where I think some of the top free agents left on the market will land, and which position they will play for their new teams. I know I’m putting my foot in my mouth with this list, but let’s see how I do come February.

Garret Atkins 3B – Baltimore Orioles
Jason Bay LF – St. Louis Cardinals
Erik Bedard SP – Toronto Blue Jays (Well, he is a Canadian…)
Adrian Beltre 3B – Boston Red Sox
Marlon Byrd CF – Texas Rangers
Mike Cameron CF – Chicago White Sox (Going out on a limb here)
Johnny Damon LF – New York Mets (I’m losing limbs here quickly…)
Carlos Delgado 1B – New York Mets
Mark Derosa 3B – St. Louis Cardinals (David Freese is NOT a solution)
Vladimir Guerrero RF – Chicago White Sox
Matt Holliday LF - Boston Red Sox
Orlando Hudson 2B – Chicago Cubs (I seem to be out of limbs, now… maybe an internal organ?)
Nick Johnson 1B – San Francisco Giants
John Lackey SP – Seattle Mariners (This is MY game, Mike Scioscia)
Joel Piniero SP – New York Mets
Miguel Tejada SS - Houston Astros

My Take on Aroldis Chapman

mlblogscallmeben721 — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 00:55:25 +0000

I read somewhere that a 40-50 million dollar deal would be laid out for Chapman and it was noted in that article that the author thought it was ridiculous to give that kind of money to someone who’s never pitched against American major leaguers. I totally agree, but when I look at this proposal and also the kind of money the Nationals had to give Stephen Strasburg, I start wondering when the value of a professional sports player will level out, if not decrease. Even in a serious economic depression, young players with no proven professional track record can grab multi-million dollar deals and then potentially fizzle out in the minors or end up as a major league player worth $500,000 a year on an annual minor-league contract offer from a small-market team. You just don’t know until they get into the professional setting and face professional teams.

The monetary value of an amateur player’s scouting reports is at a ridiculous height.

Jason Varitek

mlblogscallmeben721 — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 20:11:15 +0000

I think it is a no-brainer for Jason Varitek to excercise his player option for 2010 with the Red Sox.

On the open market, Varitek could sign somewhere with no incumbent starting catcher, such as the Kansas City Royals, and he can get 440 at-bats if he’s healthy, but he’s likely only to hit .230 with a dozen home runs and 40-50 RBI. Certainly he’s not going to put up numbers like his glory days and be a top run producer. The man can still call a game with excellence and command a pitching staff with the best of them…

.. but does he want to do that anywhere other than crouched in the dirt in front of the Fenway faithful?

If the answer is yes, Varitek will spend a year or maybe even two off the map, playing for a smaller-market team, wasting at-bats and trying to educate mediocre starting rotations, then retire and creep under the sunset with an impressive career resume, but little legend.

If the answer is no, Varitek can spend 2010 as a backup catcher who’ll get quite a few starts with Victor Martinez’s lack of throwing ability putting him at first base for a number of starts. He’ll command a staff he’s intimately familiar with and perform in front of millions of fans who love him. He’ll still be the Captain of one of the most storied franchises in sports. At the end of the year, he might perhaps celebrate his third World Series Championship and then, truly, ride off into the sunset as the best backstop in Red Sox history.

Now, which looks better?

Needless to say, I will be truly disappointed if Varitek declines his player option for 2010.

Teahen for Getz, Fields

mlblogscallmeben721 — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:04:18 +0000

The day following the Yankees’ 27th World Series win (WOOOO! CONGRATULATIONS!), the White Sox traded 2B Chris Getz and 3B/COF Josh Fields for OF/U Mark Teahen of the Royals.

This, as I see it, is a huge win for the Royals.

The White Sox get an offensive downgrade from Jermaine Dye, but a defensive upgrade, with Teahen, and the Royals get Getz, a young, not yet fully developed middle infielder with some good upside (a part of the field they’ve been subpar with since Mark Gudzielanek), and Josh Fields, who can play the corner outfield or even first base decently if they’d like to keep Alex Gordon at third. And oh yeah – Josh Fields can hit the ball 475 feet, a talent the Royals have been lacking since Carlos Beltran. The Royals just have to hope Fields can stay healthy and play well enough in the field.

For me, the clear winner is the future of the Kansas City Royals.

… as usual, trade/free agent news derived from www.mlbtraderumors.com. For this particular trade announcement, see this link http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/royals-agree-to-trade-mark-teahen-to-white-sox.html

Carl Pavano

mlblogscallmeben721 — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 16:09:40 +0000

I don’t get how Carl Pavano signs a huge contract with the Yankees, and in four seasons, pitches what — twenty-six games? — and now he gets away from New York and has a full season easily, with little to no injury trouble.

I’m starting to believe Mike Mussina on that one.

New York, you got used.

Another new young talent added…

mlblogscallmeben721 — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 22:57:17 +0000

I have added 2B/IF Justin Turner of the
Baltimore Orioles organization to my list of unsung minor
leaguers that I think can be productive major leaguers. He
has put up consistently great numbers in two organizations
(Orioles and Reds) over the past three
years.

End of August Notes…

mlblogscallmeben721 — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 20:52:45 +0000

Nationals organization pitcher Bradley Meyers has been added to my list of prospects.

Also, Daniel McCutchen has been called up by the Pittsburgh Pirates and started his first major league game on the 31st of August, giving up 3 runs in 6 innings. Nice work.